Colin Powell once stated that bad news does not improve with time, comparing it to wine. This analogy holds true for indecision and inaction during times of war as well. Eventually, the situation must be addressed. Currently, the Biden administration finds itself at that critical juncture.
April proved to be a challenging month for President Biden and his national security team. Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea continued to strategically position themselves, putting the United States in a vulnerable position. Adding to the complexity, the extreme political left within the country is enabling these adversarial actions.
Russia and Iran, in particular, have mastered the art of distraction. Democracy is under threat both domestically and internationally, yet the Biden administration remains reactive rather than proactive. The approaching November calculations further paralyze the White House.
The American media has shifted its focus away from Ukraine, despite Biden signing a funding bill providing significant military assistance. Instead, the spotlight is now on the situation in Gaza and the anti-Israel protests on college campuses across the nation. If one solely relies on mainstream media broadcasts, they would hardly be aware of the ongoing existential war in Ukraine.
Reports from Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi indicate that Russian forces are advancing in Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. There are concerns that Moscow is preparing for a potential offensive operation against Kharkiv.
The recent missile strike in Odesa by Russia was not just another attack on Ukrainian civilians. Residential buildings and civilian infrastructure were deliberately targeted, and there are indications that cluster munitions were used. If confirmed, this would mark a new low for the Kremlin and a clear violation of international humanitarian law, possibly constituting a war crime, according to Human Rights Watch.
The condemnation is nowhere to be found. There is silence from Washington, Brussels, and The Hague. The reason for this silence is the fear of escalating tensions by confronting Russia.
The recent attack resulted in the death of four individuals and left 29 wounded. It also caused significant damage to the cultural landmark known as Kivalov’s Castle in Odesa, also referred to as the “Harry Potter Castle” by many.
In the Middle East, Iran has instructed its proxies to resume attacks on American forces. U.S. Central Command is focused on defense, intercepting unmanned aerial vehicles and anti-ship ballistic missiles that pose a threat to U.S. Navy ships and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Despite occasional retaliation against missile launch sites in Syria, the Iranian-sponsored attacks persist due to Tehran's lack of fear of U.S. response.
The attacks are not limited to U.S. military targets. A construction project in the Mediterranean aimed at providing humanitarian aid to Gaza came under mortar fire by Palestinian militants. Hamas, although not claiming responsibility, made it clear that they will oppose the project as long as U.S. military involvement continues.
Regrettably, President Biden seems to have no solution to these challenges beyond political considerations for the upcoming November elections. He is struggling to navigate both his current responsibilities and his bid for re-election.
Efforts of tough rhetoric and deterrence have proven ineffective against Russia and Iran. Achieving a decisive victory in Ukraine before November seems unlikely. This is perhaps why Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is once again proposing negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin as the preferred outcome for the White House.
In his recent statement, Blinken acknowledged the significant role that Vladimir Putin's decisions will play in determining the outcome of the war. He stressed the importance of Putin demonstrating a genuine willingness to negotiate based on fundamental international principles such as sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence. The United States and Ukraine are prepared to engage in negotiations if Russia shows a sincere commitment to these principles.
This approach seems to align with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's proposal for a "sanitary zone." Lavrov's proposal suggests that Russia would relinquish captured territory in order to protect its border regions from potential Ukrainian attacks. In exchange, Ukraine would maintain its sovereignty and potentially gain NATO membership. This proposal, if accepted, could be a starting point for negotiations between the two sides.
However, the White House's substantial investment in this strategy fails to address Putin's objectives or Ukraine's determination to expel Russian forces from its land. While the investment aims to weaken Russia and push for negotiations, it may not necessarily serve the interests of Ukraine or Europe as a whole. It is important to consider the long-term goals and aspirations of all parties involved in order to find a sustainable solution to the conflict.
Similarly, the White House's optimism for a temporary peace agreement with Hamas overlooks the long-term threat that the group, supported by Iran, poses to Israel's security. Even if Hamas agrees to a ceasefire and releases hostages, the underlying threat remains unresolved. It is crucial to address the root causes of the conflict and work towards a comprehensive solution that ensures the long-term security and stability of the region.
In conclusion, while Blinken's emphasis on Putin's decisions and the importance of negotiations aligns with Lavrov's proposal, it is essential to consider the broader objectives and interests of all parties involved. The White House's investment in this strategy may benefit its own agenda, but it is important to ensure that the interests of Ukraine, Europe, and Israel are also taken into account in order to achieve a sustainable and lasting resolution to these conflicts.
Biden engaged in a conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday. The discussion revolved around Israel's upcoming operation in Rafah, with Biden restating his firm stance. Netanyahu, on the other hand, is resolute in his position to take any necessary actions to eliminate Hamas. He has made it clear that he will not consider a resolution for Palestine until the threat to his nation is eradicated. Israel finds Biden's stance unacceptable as it fails to address the threat or the issue of Iran.
Biden is facing protests on college campuses nationwide, which could jeopardize his presidency. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is focused on the fate and security of Israel, showing no concern for Biden's re-election.
History has shown that negotiations and ceasefires often do not bring about lasting solutions to conflicts. The Korean War Armistice, signed in July 1953, has been in place for 71 years without reducing tensions in the region. During this time, North Korea has accumulated an estimated 30 nuclear weapons. Netanyahu has repeatedly warned about Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and Israel's determination to prevent Tehran from acquiring them.
In certain situations, what is needed is a geostrategic victory, not just a victory in elections. The lessons of World War II highlight this. Biden should be endorsing successful strategies in Ukraine and Israel, not just in Michigan.
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