Israel's response to Iran's attack did not meet the expectations of US President Joe Biden and other western leaders. They had been calling on Israel to put an end to the dangerous chain of events that began with the assassination of a senior Iranian general in Damascus on 1 April.
The situation in Gaza, Lebanon-Israel border, and the Gulf remains tense, raising concerns of a potential all-out war in the Middle East. Despite the seriousness of the situation, the Iranians are downplaying the events in Isfahan. Initial reports suggested no attack occurred, but later it was revealed that drones launched by "infiltrators" were intercepted by air defenses. Israel's recent response to Iran's attack marked the first direct strike from Iranian territory onto Israel since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
The attack involved over 300 missiles and drones, most of which were successfully intercepted by Israel's air defenses with support from the US, UK, and Jordan. Despite warnings and preparations, the crisis highlighted the lack of understanding between Iran and Israel, leading to a deepening of tensions.
Iran declared that it considered the attack as an assault on its own territory. Israel argued that the premises were not shielded by diplomatic conventions since the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had transformed them into a military base. Neither Iran nor Israel's western allies accepted a unilateral reclassification of the building's status.
The government in Tehran hoped that Israel would agree to draw a line after its response. This was yet another serious miscalculation. If the attack on Isfahan is not followed by further attacks, the immediate tensions will subside. The events overnight could be Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's effort to react without further alienating Mr. Biden. The question remains whether this response will satisfy the former generals in Israel's war cabinet who are seeking a strong reaction to restore Israel's ability to deter its enemies.
Mr. Netanyahu's ultranationalist coalition partners have also demanded a strong retaliation from Israel. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir stated that Israelis needed to "go berserk" when Iran attacked. In a social media post, he criticized the Isfahan strike as "feeble." The preferred course of action for western governments is for both Iran and Israel to put an end to the conflict. However, even if this marks the conclusion of this phase of the crisis, new precedents have been established. Iran has struck Israel in a direct attack, and Israel has responded in kind.
This represents a shift in the "rules of the game" that have long governed the conflict between Iran and Israel in the region. The prolonged covert war between the two nations has now emerged from the shadows, revealing that despite their intense focus on each other, they struggle to interpret each other's intentions accurately. In such a volatile region, this lack of understanding is not reassuring.
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