A recent series of drone strikes targeting a Russian radar installation in Kovilkino, Mordovia Republic, potentially crossed a critical threshold outlined in a Kremlin decree signed by President Vladimir Putin in 2020. The targeted facility, the 590th separate radio engineering center of military unit 84680, houses the 29B6 "Container" over-the-horizon radar, a crucial component of Russia's aerospace reconnaissance and early-warning system.
While the extent of damage from the latest attack is still being assessed, previous strikes on April 11 reportedly damaged the site's command post building. Russian authorities claim to have downed two UAVs during these incidents. If the Container radar system was indeed impacted, it could trigger conditions outlined in the 2020 decree that determine the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia.
These conditions include receiving reliable intelligence about ballistic missile launches targeting Russian territory or its allies, the use of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction by the enemy, attacks on critical state or military infrastructure that could disrupt nuclear response capabilities, and aggression against Russia threatening its very existence.
The specter of nuclear escalation has loomed over Russia's invasion of Ukraine since its onset in February 2022. Putin and Russian officials have repeatedly warned of the possibility of a nuclear conflict in response to perceived Western interference in the conflict, echoing similar concerns voiced by Western leaders like President Joe Biden. Of particular concern are Russian tactical nuclear weapons intended for localized use on the battlefield.
Putin's remarks in March underscored these fears, emphasizing that Russia possesses weapons capable of striking targets within adversary territory, and warning of the catastrophic consequences of failing to grasp the gravity of the situation.
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