Amid Israeli-Iranian Restraint, Biden Averts Escalation in the Middle East. But for How Long?

 

President Joe Biden can find some relief, at least temporarily, as tensions between Israel and Iran seem to have eased, preventing the Middle East from descending into full-scale war.

 

Israel's retaliatory strikes on Iran and Syria resulted in minimal damage. This restrained response came after Biden urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to exercise restraint following Iran's unprecedented direct attack on Israel last week, in order to prevent further escalation of violence in the region. Iran's drone and missile attacks caused little harm and were in response to a suspected Israeli assault on the Iranian consulate in Damascus earlier this month, which resulted in the deaths of two generals.

 

Iran's public reaction to the Israeli strikes on Friday was also subdued, raising hopes that the long-standing tensions between Israel and Iran, which have been characterized by cyberattacks, assassinations, and sabotage, will remain at a manageable level.

 

For Biden, the situation remains delicate as he prepares for his reelection campaign amidst challenges in the Middle East, Russia, and the Indo-Pacific. These challenges will test the promise he made to voters during his 2020 campaign that his administration would bring stability and restore respect for the United States on the global stage.

 

Typically, foreign policy matters are not the primary concern for American voters. This November is expected to be no different, with the economy and border security taking precedence.

 

However, public opinion polls suggest that international issues may hold more significance for voters than in any U.S. election since 2006, when dissatisfaction with the Iraq War played a significant role in the Republican Party losing seats in Congress.

 

"We are witnessing an increase in the importance of this issue, while simultaneously observing negative voter evaluations of President Biden's handling of foreign affairs," explained Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. "This combination does not bode well for Biden."

 

Biden has invested significant political capital in his approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict and his administration's support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.

 

The easing of tensions between Israel and Iran coincides with Congress nearing approval of $95 billion in military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, a measure that Biden has advocated for due to the urgent need for supplies for Ukrainian forces.

 

Despite delays caused by internal party politics, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has advanced the aid package, with final House approval expected over the weekend. This development, along with increased military support, has given the White House optimism that Ukraine can turn the tide in the conflict after facing setbacks.

 

Biden has also prioritized strengthening ties in the Indo-Pacific region as part of his foreign policy agenda, aiming to build alliances and partnerships in response to China's growing influence.

 

Critics, particularly Republicans like former President Donald Trump, argue that Biden's policies have exacerbated various global challenges. They point to his failed attempts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, which they believe would embolden Tehran, as well as his decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, which they connect to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, they criticize the Obama administration for its response to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.

 

Polling data indicates a growing concern among Americans regarding foreign policy matters, and there is uncertainty as to whether Biden's portrayal as a stable foreign policy leader is resonating with voters. Approximately 40% of U.S. adults mentioned foreign policy issues when asked to list government priorities for 2024, which is double the number from the previous year. Additionally, around 47% of Americans believe that Biden has damaged relations with other countries, a sentiment that was also shared about Trump. Despite initial high approval ratings, Biden's popularity took a hit following the chaotic troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, and he now faces challenges from two ongoing wars that could impact the upcoming election. The Israel-Hamas conflict has led to criticism from both Republicans and the left wing of his party, with some accusing him of not adequately supporting Israel and others faulting him for not doing enough to protect Palestinian lives.

 

Following Israel's precise strikes on Iran, the Middle East is now in a delicate situation that requires careful navigation from all involved parties, as stated by Aaron David Miller, an advisor on Middle East matters in both Republican and Democratic administrations.

 

The recent events have raised questions about the readiness for risk on both sides. Israel and Iran managed to strike each other's territories without a significant escalation, leading to reflections on the implications of these actions. The key question is whether this situation will lead to a repeat of such actions or if it serves as a warning sign to exercise caution moving forward.

 

Currently, Israel and Hamas are at odds over a temporary cease-fire agreement that would allow for the release of remaining hostages in Hamas-controlled Gaza and facilitate the delivery of aid to the region. President Biden views this agreement as crucial in reaching a resolution to the conflict.

 

CIA Director William Burns expressed disappointment in Hamas for not accepting a proposal put forth by Egyptian and Qatari negotiators. He criticized the group for hindering humanitarian relief efforts for innocent civilians in Gaza.

 

Simultaneously, the Biden administration is emphasizing its commitment to holding Israel accountable. New sanctions were imposed on two entities accused of fundraising for extremist Israeli settlers, as well as the founder of an organization known for assaulting Palestinians.

 

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and other U.S. officials met with Israel's Minister for Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi to address concerns about Israel's planned operation in Rafah, a city in southern Gaza where many Palestinians have sought refuge.

 

Ross Baker, a retired professor of political science at Rutgers University, expressed that Biden might have experienced a temporary advantage due to the Israeli-Iranian tensions diverting attention from the dire situation in Gaza.

 

Baker stated, "Occasionally, unexpected circumstances can bring about salvation. However, the path forward is not without its fair share of complexities."