Is China Losing Patience with Russia's Conflict in Ukraine?

 

As the third year of Russia's conflict in Ukraine unfolds, China grapples with maintaining its delicate balancing act. Beijing's strategy of strategic ambiguity, neither condemning Moscow's actions nor overtly backing them, faces challenges due to the escalating costs of the war and its implications for China's global interests.

 

Initially, China seemed to benefit from the conflict. By purchasing discounted Russian energy, Beijing provided the Kremlin with crucial economic support amidst Western sanctions. Furthermore, the depletion of US and NATO weapons stockpiles suggested that a prolonged conflict could offer China a strategic advantage. However, the increased European military presence, a consequence of the ongoing war, poses a potential challenge to Chinese military ambitions.

 

Recent diplomatic efforts, such as those by China's special envoy Li Hui, indicate that Beijing may be reconsidering its involvement. This hesitancy contrasts with earlier expectations of a swift Russian victory, possibly influenced by high-level meetings between Putin and Xi. However, these expectations have not materialized due to Ukraine's staunch resistance and Western support.

 

Economically, China faces disruptions to its global trade interests due to sanctions and instability caused by the conflict. Despite benefiting from Russian energy exports, China's trade relations are strained, with risks heightened by Ukraine's attacks on Russian infrastructure and nuclear threats.

 

Critically, China's involvement in the conflict is prompting scrutiny and potential blowback, hindering its strategic goals. Secondary sanctions on Chinese firms and increased scrutiny of Chinese transits through European territories could escalate if China overtly intervenes in Taiwan.

 

Recent developments suggest China is reassessing its stance. President Xi's conversation with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in April 2023 and continued trade relations with Ukraine demonstrate a pragmatic approach. Li Hui's diplomatic efforts also emphasize Beijing's calls for a ceasefire, signaling a divergence from its initial expectations.

 

Despite pressures to maintain ties with Moscow, China faces mounting costs from the conflict. The war challenges China's commitment to sovereignty while indirectly supporting Russia's actions in Ukraine. Ultimately, China must decide whether to continue supporting a weakened Russia or pursue peace talks to end the conflict. While maintaining ties with Moscow remains an option, extending the conflict indefinitely risks damaging China's interests.