After significant delays, the US House of Representatives seems ready to vote on substantial military aid packages for Ukraine and Israel this weekend.
Despite vocal opposition within Congress, the passage of these measures relies on a fragile bipartisan coalition overcoming procedural and legislative hurdles. Speaker Mike Johnson is determined to push for a vote, even if it jeopardizes his own leadership.
The impending vote on aid for Ukraine is of great importance to Kyiv, which urgently seeks support amid Russia's advances on the battlefield.
What's in the aid bills?
Johnson's proposal allocates $60.8 billion to Ukraine, $26.4 billion to Israel, and $8.1 billion to the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan. Each component will be voted on separately, allowing for the possibility of partial approval.
Additionally, a fourth piece of legislation includes mandates for ByteDance to divest TikTok, authorization for the sale of frozen Russian assets, and new sanctions on Russia, Iran, and China.
The eventual combined bill must pass the Senate before President Biden can sign it into law. Johnson also pledges to introduce an immigration reform bill, aiming to win conservative support.
Why the delays?
Growing Republican opposition to aid for Ukraine and liberal objections to military support for Israel have stalled progress in the House, where Johnson holds a slim majority. Some conservative members, led by Marjorie Taylor Greene, threaten Johnson's leadership over his support for Ukraine aid.
Left-wing Democrats oppose aid for Israel due to concerns about its actions in Gaza. However, the aid bill includes $9 billion in humanitarian aid, potentially swaying some hesitant Democrats.
By allowing separate votes on Israel and Ukraine aid, Johnson hopes to accommodate individual objections without jeopardizing the entire effort.
What's at stake?
US officials warn of dire circumstances in Ukraine, with dwindling munitions and morale amid Russian advances. CIA Director Walter Burns warns of a potential Ukrainian defeat by the end of 2024.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal emphasizes the urgent need for American aid, while Israel seeks replenishment of its high-tech air defenses following recent challenges.
Will they pass?
Despite dissent, Democrats and pro-aid Republicans in the House Rules Committee cleared a procedural hurdle, signaling potential passage of the aid package. Democratic support could provide Johnson with political leverage, though his reliance on minority party backing is unusual.
Democrats, prioritizing aid to Ukraine, may reluctantly support Johnson's efforts, potentially securing passage of the aid package.
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