Israel and Iran Downplay Alleged Israeli Strike: A Momentary Calm in Tensions

 

The recent Israeli airstrike near a major air base and nuclear site in central Iran has been downplayed by both Israel and Iran, with both countries indicating their commitment to preventing the escalation of violence into a full-blown regional war. However, despite these reassurances, the underlying grievances between the two nations remain unresolved, leaving room for further conflict.

 

Amidst weeks of tensions and various incidents, including the alleged Israeli strike that killed two Iranian generals, an Iranian missile barrage on Israel, and the recent Israeli strike in Iran, the situation remains volatile. Amos Harel, the military-affairs commentator for the Israeli daily Haaretz, has expressed concern that despite international efforts to de-escalate tensions, a broad regional war seems imminent.

 

Israel has long considered Iran as its greatest enemy due to the Islamic Republic's calls for Israel's destruction, its controversial nuclear program, and its support for hostile proxies in the Middle East. The recent rise in tensions can be attributed to attacks by Iranian-backed Palestinian groups, such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, on Israel, which triggered a significant Israeli offensive in Gaza. This offensive, in turn, led to retaliatory strikes by Hezbollah in Lebanon and missile and drone attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

 

While Israel and Iran have primarily engaged in a shadow war in Syria, direct confrontations have been relatively rare. However, this changed after an airstrike in Damascus killed two Iranian generals on April 1, with Iran blaming Israel and vowing revenge. This incident further escalated tensions between the two countries.

 

The situation is further complicated by the involvement of various regional actors, such as Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias, who are aligned with Iran and have been carrying out attacks against Israel. This has created a complex web of conflicts and potential flashpoints that could easily spiral into a broader regional war.

 

Despite international efforts to mediate and de-escalate the situation, the unresolved grievances between Israel and Iran, coupled with the involvement of various proxy groups, make the prospect of a full-blown regional war a looming possibility. The recent incidents and rising tensions have heightened concerns and underscored the need for diplomatic efforts to address the root causes of the conflict and prevent further escalation.

 

Iran retaliated by launching more than 300 missiles and attack drones directly at Israel on Saturday night. Despite the efforts of a U.S.-led international coalition, Israel was only able to intercept 99% of the incoming fire, with a few missiles managing to cause minor damage to an Israeli military base and seriously injuring a young girl.

 

On Friday, Iranian state television reported that air defense batteries were fired in multiple provinces in response to reports of drones in the air. Iranian army commander Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi stated that their crews targeted several flying objects.

 

Mousavi clarified that the explosion in the sky of Isfahan on that morning was a result of air defense systems shooting at a suspicious object, which ultimately caused no damage. Authorities confirmed that air defenses were fired at a major air base near Isfahan, where Iran's fleet of American-made F-14 Tomcats is stationed.

 

Isfahan is also known for housing sites related to Iran's nuclear program, including the underground Natanz enrichment site, which has been repeatedly targeted by suspected Israeli sabotage attacks. Interestingly, the apparent attack occurred on the 85th birthday of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

 

State television assured that all Iranian atomic sites in the area were "fully safe," and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that there was "no damage" to Iran's nuclear facilities.

 

Notably, Iranian officials did not mention any potential Israeli involvement, which could be a deliberate move considering their previous threats to respond to any Israeli retaliatory attack.

 

Israel, on the other hand, did not comment on the apparent attack. However, one government minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, expressed his dissatisfaction with a single-word tweet early Friday, using a slang term to imply weakness or lameness.

 

Italy’s foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, mentioned at a summit of Western leaders in Capri that the U.S. was provided with "last-minute" information from Israel regarding the attack. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledged this statement, clarifying that the U.S. was not involved in any offensive operations.

 

Yoel Guzansky, a former Iran expert in the Israeli prime minister’s office, suggested that Israel conducted the attack as a way to subtly send a message to Iran without causing significant provocation. This was done to avoid upsetting the United States, which had advised against aggressive actions, and to prevent further Iranian retaliation.

 

Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, emphasized that the recent violence seems to have subsided for now. However, he warned that Israel still faces threats from Iranian-backed forces on multiple fronts, indicating the possibility of future confrontations.

 

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an end to the ongoing strikes in the region, emphasizing the need to break the cycle of retaliation in the Middle East.

 

Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, disputed Iran's claims about the nature of the attacks. He suggested that Israeli aircraft flew over Syria from Israel, targeting military bases in southern Syria with air defense systems. Following this, they entered Iraqi airspace and launched a small number of Blue Sparrow air-to-surface ballistic missiles, likely without breaching Iranian airspace.

 

Accounts of explosions in Iraq support this scenario, as does the discovery of debris from what seems to be the booster of an Israeli-made Blue Sparrow missile by Iraqi security outside Baghdad, according to Lister.

 

Lister stated, "In essence, the Israelis would not have had to enter Iranian airspace to carry out this attack. I believe this was Israel's way of conveying the message that we can reach you wherever we choose."

 

If the current situation calms down, Israel can refocus on its ongoing conflict in Gaza and the ongoing clashes with Hezbollah. With no signs of easing on those fronts, the possibility of further confrontations with Iran remains high, although neither side seems willing following Friday's alleged Israeli strike.

 

"Neither side is prepared to take the plunge," noted Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute. However, he added a significant warning.

 

"It is likely that we will revert to a proxy war," he said, "but now it is a proxy war with the danger of a sudden outbreak of state-to-state conflict. This was not a concern before."