Amid the aftermath of Nagorno-Karabakh's lost conflict and the sobering realization of Armenia's security vulnerability sans Russia's shield, Yerevan has embarked on a quest for new alliances.
Scheduled for Friday, a trilateral summit in Brussels will convene, uniting the US, EU, and Armenia, featuring Antony Blinken, Ursula von der Leyen, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan respectively.
Ahead of this pivotal meeting, the European Parliament endorsed a resolution fortifying bonds with Armenia, prompting discussions within Armenian circles about potential EU membership.
Yerevan is also fostering defense connections with Europe. In recent months, France committed to supplying modern weaponry to Armenia and assisting in military training. Moreover, the EU has expanded its observer mission along the Azerbaijani border.
Both Russia and Azerbaijan perceive Armenia's lean towards Europe as a threat, cautioning of dire consequences. However, Pashinyan contends it's not a Western pivot but rather a strategic diversification.
The "Soviet paradigm" bid adieu as Armenia confronted the aftermath of its independence era. While balancing between Russia and the West, Armenia's strategic collaborations favored technology, education, and governance from Western allies but retained a reliance on Moscow for security.
This strategy faltered dramatically during the Karabakh conflict, culminating in Armenia's substantial defeat. Over three years, Azerbaijan's military resurgence reclaimed control over Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding regions, displacing tens of thousands of Armenians.
Simultaneously, skirmishes erupted along the recognized border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, challenging Yerevan's expectations of support from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance led by Russia.
Disillusionment with Russia burgeoned, shaking the foundations of pro-Western sentiment within Armenia. The invasion of Ukraine further exposed Moscow's waning commitments, leaving Armenian security agreements in limbo.
With the September 2022 escalation marking a turning point, Armenia began reconstructing its decimated military and sought new alliances to shore up its defenses.
The year 2022 witnessed significant geopolitical shifts elsewhere, underscoring the urgency for Armenia to reassess its strategic allegiances. Ukrainian military successes and global dynamics prompted Armenian leaders to explore alternative partnerships.
February 2024 saw Armenia's symbolic freeze of CSTO membership, reflective of the nation's diminishing faith in the alliance. While not a legal withdrawal, this move underscored Yerevan's disillusionment with its erstwhile security guarantor.
Despite these developments, Armenia refrains from framing its geopolitical realignment as a pivot to the West, preferring the term "diversification of security relations."
France emerged as a key partner, pledging modern weaponry and military training. India also responded affirmatively, supplying advanced armaments. These procurements, however, elicited objections from Azerbaijan, albeit with a more tempered response from Moscow.
The upcoming US-EU-Armenia summit on April 5 signals a reaffirmation of support for Yerevan amidst its evolving relations with Russia and ongoing tensions with Azerbaijan.
Yet, challenges persist, particularly concerning the delineation of borders and unresolved issues from the Karabakh conflict. Consolidated international pressure remains pivotal to averting further escalation, although divergent interests among global powers complicate the path to lasting peace.
As Armenia navigates its geopolitical crossroads, the specter of conflict looms large, necessitating deft diplomacy and robust alliances to safeguard its sovereignty and security.
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