Russia Employing Incremental Assaults on Fatigued Ukrainian Forces in Anticipation of Spring Offensive

 

Russian forces are intensifying pressure on weary Ukrainian troops, gearing up for a potential expansion of territory as spring approaches and the thawing mud facilitates movement of heavy military equipment across rural landscapes.

 

With the conflict in Ukraine entering its third year and crucial U.S. assistance to Kyiv facing delays in Congress, Russia has increasingly relied on satellite-guided munitions to strike Ukrainian positions, exploiting their limited manpower and ammunition supply.

 

Despite Russia's overwhelming firepower and personnel, experts suggest that a large-scale ground offensive might be unnecessary and risky. Instead, Russian tactics seem to favor smaller, localized assaults to chip away at Ukrainian defenses incrementally.

 

Michael Kofman, a military analyst with the Carnegie Endowment, likens Russia's strategy to a gradual erosion of Ukrainian capabilities through numerous smaller offensives, potentially leading to the exploitation of more open terrain.

 

Last summer's Ukrainian counteroffensive faltered when advancing units became ensnared in extensive Russian minefields, suffering heavy casualties from artillery and drone attacks. Russia is unlikely to repeat such errors.

 

EXPOSED UKRAINIAN FORCES

Despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's orders to fortify defensive positions, progress has been slow, leaving key areas vulnerable to Russian advances.

 

Oleh Zhdanov, a Ukrainian military expert, criticized the delayed construction of defensive lines, leaving Ukrainian troops dangerously exposed to Russian offensives.

 

According to Kofman, Kyiv is lagging in fortifying its positions across the front line and lacks effective secondary defenses.

 

Russian troops, having captured Avdiivka, are now targeting Chasiv Yar, aiming to advance towards strategic cities like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region, which Russia illegally annexed in 2022.

 

Zhdanov expressed concerns over Ukraine's insufficient firepower to repel Russian advances, highlighting the absence of promised defensive lines behind Avdiivka.

Gen. Christopher Cavoli of U.S. European Command warned Congress that without additional military aid, Ukraine would be vastly outgunned by Russia within weeks.

 

RUSSIA'S TARGETS

Following Putin's reelection, he pledged to establish a "sanitary zone" along Russia's borders to shield against Ukrainian attacks.

 

While specifics were not provided, Russian analysts speculate that, in addition to advancing in Donetsk, Moscow might target Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, which it failed to capture at the war's onset.

 

Recent strikes on Kharkiv's power plants hint at a potential Russian offensive. Zhdanov believes these attacks aim to cripple infrastructure and force residents to flee.

 

Retired Lt. Gen. Andrei Gurulev suggested a strategy to encircle Kharkiv, a challenging but critical objective that could pave the way for further Russian advances into Ukraine.

 

After facing resistance to mobilization efforts, Russia shifted tactics, enticing volunteers with attractive benefits. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported a significant increase in volunteer recruits in 2023.

 

Viktor Bondarev, deputy head of the defense affairs committee, assured that there are no plans for a new wave of mobilization, citing the satisfactory combat readiness achieved through volunteer recruitment.