According to data released by Kyiv, Russia is on track to sustain more than 330,000 casualties in Ukraine during 2024. The Ukrainian military reported 82,870 Russian casualties from January to April 1, 2024. If these rates continue, Moscow would face a total of 331,480 casualties by the year's end.
These projections significantly exceed the estimated Russian casualties for 2023, which Ukraine claims totaled 252,570. Russia has been accused of suffering extensive losses since the beginning of the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. Between then and April 1, 2024, Russia's General Staff reported 442,880 casualties. Western analysts generally estimate total Russian casualties to be around 350,000 for the entire duration of the war. Independent verification of Ukraine's figures is challenging, and interpretations differ among various sources.
Fluctuations in casualty counts are typical, and the true figures can be complex to determine. Despite potential skepticism, the casualty data offers a glimpse into the considerable burden the war has placed on Russia's military.
Casualty spikes occurred earlier this year when Russia attempted to capture the strategic eastern city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, which was eventually taken in mid-February. This resulted in higher numbers of casualties. The city was called a "meat grinder," echoing the term used for the prolonged battle in Bakhmut, which Russia seized in May 2023.
Reports from the British government suggest that Russia's daily average casualties have increased each year of the war. In 2022, the daily average was 400; in 2023, it rose to 693. In the first three months of 2024, the daily average reached 913. Casualty rates decreased in March as fighting around Avdiivka subsided, and as the Russian presidential election neared.
However, Ukraine warns that Russia is preparing for a new offensive, focusing on the northeastern city of Kharkiv and reinforcing operations in the eastern Donetsk region. Ukraine is also facing resource shortages and fatigue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently reduced the conscription age from 27 to 25 in response to recruitment challenges.
Russia has replenished its ranks despite heavy casualties. General Christopher Cavoli, the head of the U.S.'s European Command, noted that Russia's military is now 15% larger than in February 2022 and appears to be learning from past errors.
Ukraine's ability to hold its ground against Russia could depend on ongoing military aid from Western allies. With U.S. Congress entangled in budgetary debates, more than $60 billion in aid for Ukraine is stalled. European support also lags behind, with countries struggling to provide the needed ammunition and resources. Frederik Mertens, an analyst with The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, suggests that a shortage of artillery ammunition could significantly affect Ukraine's ability to fight effectively, thus impacting Russian casualties.
If Ukraine cannot counter Russian attacks due to a lack of artillery, its effectiveness in combat might decrease, leading to lower Russian casualty rates than anticipated in 2023.
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