A wave of relief spread across the front lines in Ukraine on Saturday, as the US approved a $61 billion package of military aid to support Ukraine's defense against Russia's invasion. This long-delayed aid is expected to strengthen Ukraine's capacity to counter Russian aggression.
An intelligence officer in Ukraine, known by the call sign "Bankir," shared his relief with CNN, saying, "We thought that our partners had forgotten about us." The US House of Representatives approved the aid package after months of delay due to opposition from far-right Republicans. The bill now moves to the Senate, where it's expected to pass.
Though the aid package will likely provide much-needed support to Ukraine and slow Russia's advance, experts warn it does not guarantee victory for Ukraine.
A Race Against Time
Mark Warne, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CBS's "Face the Nation" that the equipment should be on its way by the end of the week, emphasizing the urgency. Ukraine's military faces dwindling supplies of ammunition and artillery, struggling to repel intensifying Russian attacks. With air defense systems running low on missiles, Russian forces are increasingly able to target Ukrainian cities and power plants.
Recent warnings from Ukraine's leaders have underscored the critical need for more aid, with a looming risk of defeat if further support isn't secured. Analysts say this aid package could help bolster Ukraine's defenses against an expected Russian offensive this summer.
US-made missiles have been crucial in disrupting Russian supply lines and targeting troop concentrations, while artillery has been critical in holding defensive positions. The new aid will allow Ukraine to replenish its depleting stockpiles of these critical weapons, which had been rationed at the front lines.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War suggest that this aid package might help blunt the ongoing Russian offensive if it arrives quickly enough. A senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that the new equipment "will help to slow down the Russian advance, but not stop it."
Uncertain Outlook for Ukraine
Russia's ongoing attacks have put Ukraine's future in a precarious position, especially as Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be banking on a longer conflict to erode Western support. Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko noted that while the recent aid package buys Ukraine time, "We have not won the war. We will still need to finish the job."
Despite the significant amount of aid, George Beebe, a former CIA analyst, told Business Insider that it's likely not enough for Ukraine to launch a counter-offensive to push Russian forces back. The future of US aid remains uncertain, especially with Republican candidate Donald Trump publicly opposing support for Ukraine.
European allies continue to back Ukraine but face challenges in providing sufficient ammunition and equipment to offset the potential shortfall in US aid. Given this uncertainty, some believe that the best Ukraine can do is use this aid to strengthen its position, inflict losses on Russian forces, and hope that allies maintain support into the next year.
A former Ukrainian officer who runs the Frontelligence Insight newsletter, as cited by The Financial Times, believes this package could buy Ukraine and the European Union about a year's worth of time. Yet, he cautions that further aid packages may be smaller in size, suggesting that Ukraine's fight against Russia is far from over.
For Ukraine to win against Russia, it will need continued military aid beyond 2024, a provision that currently lacks assurance.
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