Ukrainian Confidence in Victory Over Russia Diminishes Alongside Declining Support for Zelensky: Insights from Spring 2024 Sociological Analysis

Most Ukrainians still express approval for President Volodymyr Zelensky, although the level of support has somewhat waned since the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion. Additionally, there's a prevailing belief in victory in the ongoing conflict, yet many feel that the mobilization efforts in Ukraine are progressing sluggishly. These insights emerge from a recent sociological study conducted by the "Rating" group, commissioned by the Center for Analysis and Sociological Research of the International Republican Institute.

The survey delved into various aspects of Ukrainian sentiment, including perceptions of Zelensky's policies. Over 60% of respondents expressed approval of the president's work, with around 22% fully endorsing it and 41% leaning towards approval. However, this level of support, which stood at a staggering 90% during the initial phases of the war, has gradually declined. In April 2022, such respondents amounted to 94%, and by February 2023, 91%. Conversely, those who either partially or wholly disapprove of Zelensky's policies rose to 33% by February 2024, a stark increase from the mere 5% observed at the conflict's outset.

The survey also gauged sentiments towards other governmental bodies, revealing widespread discontent. Approval ratings for the Verkhovna Rada stood at a mere 19%, while approval for the government under Denis Shmygal's leadership was at 35%, and local authorities at 47%. Nevertheless, unwavering support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine persisted at 93%.

Despite skepticism towards governmental efficacy, the vast majority of Ukrainians (88%) still maintain faith in victory over Russia, albeit slightly lower than the initial fervor which stood at 97%. Notably, 45% believe that Ukraine will retain all territories it possessed in 1991, while 16% anticipate regaining control over territories lost before February 24, 2022.

Regarding mobilization efforts, the study found that over a third of respondents (36%) deemed the current level insufficient, while nearly a third (30%) considered it optimal. Common reasons cited for reluctance to enlist in the army included fear of death, disability, or captivity, perceived unfair mobilization practices, and inadequate equipment and ammunition.

In terms of holiday observance, the survey revealed shifting trends, with 53% celebrating Christmas on December 25 according to the Gregorian or New Julian calendar, while 11% observed it on January 7, in line with the Russian Orthodox Church's tradition.

Concerning future planning, a significant portion of respondents (24%) reported planning their lives only a month ahead, while 23% looked beyond a year. Economic concerns loomed large, with 68% reporting a worsening in their family's financial situation, although 5% noted an improvement.

The survey, conducted at the end of February across Ukraine (excluding Crimea and occupied Donbass), involved telephone interviews with a random sample of mobile numbers, totaling approximately two thousand respondents aged 18 and above. The margin of error for representativeness was within 2.2%.