U.S. Aid to Ukraine: What It Means for the Conflict with Russia
New Weapons for Ukraine
Ukraine has faced significant challenges in its war against Russian aggression, especially due to a severe shortage of artillery since the end of 2022. This has had dire consequences, such as the loss of key territory, including the town of Avdiivka in the Donbas region, and mounting pressure on Chasiv Yar. Russian forces have been able to outpace Ukraine's artillery with a ratio of at least five to one, sometimes even reaching ten to one. This disparity has rendered Ukraine's defense efforts less effective, forcing them to use smoke shells to deter Russian attacks due to lack of ammunition.
Moreover, Ukraine's air and missile defense systems are insufficient, exposing civilian infrastructure to Russian attacks. Power stations have been frequent targets, leading to blackouts and electricity rationing in major cities like Kharkiv. This poses a significant threat as the colder seasons approach.
Timeline for U.S. Aid
Following approval by the U.S. House of Representatives, the Senate is expected to vote on the $61 billion aid package for Ukraine soon, with President Biden likely to sign it into law. Pentagon officials suggest that the first shipment of aid, focusing on artillery and air defense, could begin shortly after the Senate vote. Initial supplies have been stockpiled in Europe and could reach Ukraine within a week or two. However, experts caution that it could take weeks before the aid has a noticeable impact on the battlefield. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned that Russia might try to capitalize on this window by launching additional offensives or air raids.
Europe's Support for Ukraine
European countries have taken longer to respond with military aid due to reliance on private-sector companies for munitions production, unlike the U.S., which has government-owned manufacturers. However, concerns over the potential delay in U.S. resupply have accelerated European efforts. A Czech-led initiative aims to procure over 300,000 artillery shells from neutral countries, with the first shipments expected before June. Germany recently donated a Patriot air defense system, while the Netherlands has agreed to acquire additional Patriot systems for Ukraine.
Medium-Term Outlook for the War
Russia has also been stepping up its defense spending, potentially reaching 7.5% of its GDP, while deploying new tactics and technology. They are using air-launched glide bombs and increasing the use of drones to target Ukrainian forces. Russia's manpower advantage on the battlefield has also been a significant factor.
Experts believe that the new U.S. aid will likely stabilize Ukraine's position through 2024 and support preparations for operations in 2025. However, they caution against expecting a drastic turnaround in the conflict's dynamics this year. The coming year could be characterized by "industrial competition," with both sides building up resources for potential decisive strikes in 2025.
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