What Motivates China to Supply Arms to Russia Despite Risk of US Sanctions?

Antony Blinken's recent address at the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, resembling a warning shot aimed at China, highlighted the concerning issue of China's significant contribution of weapons-related technology to Russia. This contribution, as Blinken emphasized, is fueling what he dubbed as the "biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War."

Further elucidating upon this stance during his recent visit to Beijing, Blinken shed light on China's compliance with the US's request to refrain from arms sales to Russia during the Ukraine conflict. However, he pointed out the extensive list of items China continues to provide, possessing potential military applications such as semiconductors, drones, helmets, vests, machine tools, and radios.

China's support for the Russian industrial complex not only undermines Ukrainian security but also places Chinese firms at risk of facing sanctions from the US government, exacerbating China's already fragile economy. Despite this looming threat, China's staunch backing of Moscow can be attributed to a single imperative: survival.

Recognizing the necessity of allies to challenge the US's dominance, China perceives Russia as indispensable for its long-term survival. This sentiment is encapsulated in the proverb "Once the lips are gone, the teeth will feel the cold," illustrating the interdependence between the two nations. Should Russia falter, China apprehends that the West might consolidate its resources to counter the perceived "Chinese threat," hence necessitating its support for Moscow.

Although the camaraderie between Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin appears robust, it's essential to acknowledge the historical tensions between China and Russia. Past conflicts over communist ideology and border disputes have strained their relationship, leading to a formal alliance breakup in 1961 and subsequent skirmishes.

Despite these historical rifts, the recent high-level visit from Beijing to Pyongyang underscores China's strategic maneuvers amidst its concerns. China's engagement with North Korea aims to solidify its influence and mitigate non-Chinese influences that may jeopardize its security.

Beijing's multifaceted approach includes diplomatic reassurances to Kim Jong Un and reducing the Kremlin's arms dependence on Pyongyang. While these actions may seem disparate at first glance, they align with China's overarching strategy to safeguard its interests and maintain stability in the region.