Xi, having observed the repercussions of Western sanctions on a ruthless aggressor, has diligently fortified the Chinese economy against such measures over the past couple of years. His methods have included bolstering transactional ties with allies in the 'Global South', securing abundant reserves of oil and gas, and, most notably, amassing gold on an unprecedented scale even by Chinese standards.
To grasp the tactical objectives behind these maneuvers and, more crucially, their strategic implications, it's imperative to delve deeper into Xi's motivations. Let's begin with the gold surge. In just 17 months, China's officially declared gold reserves have surged by 17%, now standing at nearly 73 million troy ounces, valued at a staggering $170 billion. Yet, there are hints of even larger off-the-books acquisitions. Simultaneously, China has bolstered its foreign exchange reserves to levels not seen since 2015.
This accumulation resembles a formidable war chest, meticulously crafted to withstand severe Western sanctions, akin to those that might follow a hypothetical Chinese incursion into Taiwan, following the Ukrainian model.
Gone are the days when it was fashionable in certain Western circles to assert that Xi would never contemplate invading Taiwan. The belief that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would falter in such a venture, both in terms of human casualties and financial resources, has waned, especially amidst escalating tensions with the US and its allies, coupled with China's access to ample Russian energy reserves following Western curtailment of imports.
The concept of "combat readiness," frequently espoused by Xi, transcends mere military preparedness; it encapsulates a comprehensive strategy of relentless confrontation against all adversaries, with Taiwan merely a single component in China's broader quest for dominance. Recent Chinese geopolitical activities, encompassing the augmentation of nuclear arsenals, militarization of space, and advancements in missile technology, underscore this expansionist agenda.
While China's economic initiatives haven't fully resuscitated domestic growth to desired levels, Xi seems willing to tolerate this stagnation, provided social stability is maintained through stringent digital surveillance and law enforcement measures. Moreover, China is intensifying its reliance on trusted foreign suppliers for crucial raw materials, while concurrently exploiting natural resources in environmentally sensitive regions worldwide.
China's exports of renewable energy technologies serve not only as economic transactions but also as strategic instruments for extending influence. Similarly, China's advantageous trade balance with Western nations carries significant political implications, exemplified by its relationship with Germany.
Confronted with China's multifaceted hybrid warfare tactics, including espionage, disinformation campaigns, and cyber conflicts, the West faces a daunting challenge. Xi's accumulation of a substantial war chest, akin to Beijing's hypersonic missiles and nuclear arsenal, serves not to instigate an immediate assault on Taiwan but rather to ensure China's ascendancy in a shifting global power dynamic.
Xi is banking on the disarray and discord among Western nations, vividly illustrated by events in Ukraine. If his ambitions remain unchecked, he aims to annex Taiwan without encountering substantial resistance. This, rather than speculating on the timing of a potential invasion, constitutes the crux of China's geostrategic challenge to a fractured and inward-looking Western alliance.
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